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a Prophecy 
Fulfilled 



The Present War Predicted 
in 1911 



SECRET DIPLOMACY EXPOSED IN 

Ha (&\xtvt? QDut Ht?ttt 

( The Coming War) 

(Member French Chamber ol Deputies) 



PUBLISHED IN PARIS IN MAY, 1911 

THREE YEARS BEFORE THE WAR 



-04 z 

\°l\to 




'GU454207 



What Conrad Nies, Editor of the "Denver Herald,' 
saps of this booklet : 

" * * * It is an exceedingly clever and attractive presentation 
of certain secret diplomatic transactions within the French cabinet 
during the eight-year period, commencing in 1903, which Francis 
Delaisi pictured in his own graphic way, to his French compatriots 
in 1911. The strictly objective judgment of this clear-sighted French- 
man, who presents the political situation of Europe at that period 
without bias, makes his forecast of the present titanic struggle, which 
he regarded as inevitable, one of the most valuable additions to the 
literature on the worlds war. His disclosures are intensely interesting, 
first, because it required courage to make them even at that time, 
and second, because subsequent events proved his conception to be 
very nearly correct. No conclusion should be reached on this subject 
without reading Delaisi's La guerre qui vient." 



DEC 26 1916 



LA GUERRE QUI VIENT 

The Prophecy of 1911 



PREFACE 

In 1911, that is, three years before the outbreak of the 
European war, there was published by the Paris periodical 
"La Guerre Sociale," an article by Francis Delaisi, member 
of the Chamber of Deputies, entitled "La Guerre qui vient" 
(in English, "The War to Come"). It is of minor importance 
to what extent his warnings against "secret diplomacy" and 
political intrigues, as exposed therein, were heeded by the 
French people at that time. But it is highly interesting and 
of transcendent importance now to follow the author 
through his exposures of conditions prevailing in French 
administrative circles from 1903 until 1911, and which, three 
years later, precipitated the most terrible war in all history. 

Nothing which has been written so far comes nearer 
picturing the real causes of the present war, or as near being 
a prophecy, as "The War to Come," because Delaisi, with 
deep penetration, saw clearly that the conspiracies of some 
of France's leading politicians and financiers who used the 
battle cry "revenge" to cloak their scheming for private 
profit, would lead inevitably to a crisis. If Delaisi had suc- 
ceeded in making his compatriots see that crisis as it appeared 
before his own vision, if they could have sensed, as he did, 
that England's friendship for France was only the child of 
its determination to crush a commercial rival, perhaps there 
would have been no war. 

The author of "The War to Come" shows conclusively 
how little, if anything, the public really knows of what is 
going on behind the diplomatic scenes; how the "dear people" 
are purposely kept in ignorance of the plots hatched out there 
by grasping special interests, plots which may have the most 
disastrous consequences in shaping the destinies of nations. 



—3— 



It is a scathing denunciation of all secret diplomacy, and 
therefore of paramount interest in this country just at this 
time. 

The question "who or what caused the war?" will find 
a much readier answer in the light of this carefully correct 
translation* of Delaisi's prediction written in May, 1911, that 
is, three years before the war. It is not a vague prophecy, 
but a forecast based on an accurate understanding of con- 
ditions then existing in France. 



*This translation of "La Guerre qui vient" has been made as 
literal as possible, so as to preserve as nearly as possible the 
vernacular of the original French, and without regards to choice of 
English. The original, published in- book form, can be obtained 
from eastern book-sellers. — The Translator. 

—4— 



THE COMING WAR 

To speak of a possible, a probable or an approaching war 
sounds fatuous at first thought. 

We have for a long time fondled ourselves with dreams 
of peace ! We have so often pictured to ourselves the power 
of democracies and parliaments as a check on the warlike 
ambitions of governments; we have accustomed ourselves to 
count upon the desire of the masses for peace ! 

Certainly if public sentiment only were consulted in all 
countries of the globe, there would be nothing to fear. 

It is quite evident that the mass of the German people 
has no desire to shoot our people, just as the great mass of 
English people want only to till their fields and work in their 
shops and factories in peace ; and, as for the French, whether 
laborers or peasants, poor or well-to-do, international social- 
ists, or radical patriots, they have only one desire — peace. 

Then all would be well and we could rest securely if the 
people were the masters of their destinies. 

Unfortunately, in every country of the world the people 
do not direct their foreign policy. 

That function is the exclusive privilege of a very small 
number of functionaries, who are addressed as diplomats. 
These individuals, carefully selected, all belong (and also in 
our Republic) to the titled nobility or the aristocracy of 
wealth. All are subservient to the financial and industrial 
oligarchy and strive to obtain for them foreign loans or for- 
eign orders for their goods ; the ambassadors in gold braid 
are today no more and no less than the agents of the banks 
and the great commercial institutions. 

"But," you say, "above them stands the Minister of 
Foreign Affairs, who is their chief, and who is himself respon- 
sible to Parliament." 

Oh, yes, a fine responsibility that is ! When a representa- 
tive asks any question about an incident of foreign policy, 
the government invariably makes solemn declaration about 
"peaceful intentions," "the balance of power," etc. 

If the interrogator insists and demands exact details, the 
answer may be known in advance: "Diplomatic Secrets." 

Thanks to this system, neither people nor Parliament 
know anything, and may thus be entangled, without suspect- 
ing it, in the gravest of conflicts, and be driven into war by 
a few men. 

-5— 



Delcasse's Coup 



This we saw clearly in 1905. At that time M. Delcasse 
had governed ten years, without interruption, the foreign 
policy of France. He had so well secured the confidence of 
the Chamber of Deputies that they approved all his state- 
ments without discussion. And this "little" man had become 
so conceited with pride that he no longer consulted the other 
ministers, his colleagues. 

In that way he, during 1904 and 1905, in conjunction with 
the English Cabinet, and without informing anyone of his 
doings, manipulated the "isolation" of Germany. He en- 
deavored to detach Italy from the Triple Alliance, negotiated 
with St. Petersburg, intrigued at Constantinople, and schemed 
that Germany, after being isolated, should be crushed by 
England with the help of France. 

Naturally, William II was not slow to see through this 
manouevre and brusquely dictated an ultimatum through the 
mediation of Prince Radolin. 

We remeniber the excitement and surprise which spread 
through the whole country at the time. One beautiful morn- 
ing in June all the newspapers appeared with maps of the 
frontier on the first page — on one side we saw little black 
squares representing all the German army corps, on the other 
side little black squares for the French army corps. And 
everyone asked himself that morning if he would have to 
take his gun and knapsack and go break his head in the 
Vosges. 

In the Chamber they passed an hour of veritable mad- 
ness. The Deputies who knew that the Moroccan affair was 
of little importance, understood perfectly the fact that some 
unsuspected intrigue must be behind all this. They wanted 
to hold a session to cross-question Rouvier and to overthrow 
the Ministry. 

But it must be said that Rouvier himself was the most 
surprised of all, and demanded an explanation from Delcasse. 

There was held at the Elysee a council of the Ministers, 
which will remain historic. For two hours by the clock the 
little man disclosed to his stupefied colleagues his intrigues, 
and with audacious calmness declared himself plainly in 
favor of a continuance of the policy of "isolation," for a 
military alliance with England, and for war with Germany. 

Rouvier and his colleagues were unanimous in their 
opinion to get rid of this dangerous man, and the relations 
with Berlin gradually assumed normal conditions. 

—6— 



But it is, nevertheless, true that a single man, without 
consulting anyone, had the power to involve millions of beings 
in a dangerous policy and without the knowledge of the 
Chambers, and even of the other Ministers, to bring a whole 
people, against their will, upon the verge of war. 

So much is true, that even under a democratic govern- 
ment the people are not the masters of their own destinies. 



The Servile Press 



"But," say you, "we have newspapers which should 
warn us of danger." 

Ah ! The press is well prompted ! 

In the first place the dispatches of the Agence Havas, 
which are the newspapers' source of information, are care- 
fully gone over by the Minister of Foreign Affairs. They 
are so meagre that the great newspapers which keep posted 
on the foreign policy must apply to the foreign news agencies. 

Le Matin receives the dispatches of the Times, L'Echo de 
Paris those of the Daily Telegraph, etc. What is more, they 
are all supplied from English news agencies, so that we in 
France never see the situation except through English eyes. 

Concerning the articles and the commentaries written 
by the newspapers on these dispatches, that is very simple. 

There is, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a press 
bureau. There daily a very amiable functionary receives 
the reporters. Very gently he expounds to them what they 
should "think" about the foreign policy. 

Naturally he says only what conforms to the views of 
the Minister. All the newspapers repeat the interview the 
next morning; and the mass of people who have no other 
source of information believe what is told them. 

One may judge by this whether the public is well in- 
formed. As a result of such procedure the Eusso-Japanese 
war had broken out while the entire press was announcing 
that it would not take place; also that the whole world 
considered the Moroccan affair of no importance on the very 
day which nearly brought on the war; and finally, at this 
very moment, all Europe knows that the Franco-Russian 
Alliance is virtually dissolved, whereas our public alone 
believes it to be as solid as ever. 

In short, our foreign policy is shaped without deference 
to either public opinion or Parliament ; it is sometimes even 
beyond the control of the government. 

—7— 



In our suspicious democracy it depends upon a single 
man and a small coterie of financiers and men of affairs to 
unchain a war and embark this country upon a series of the 
most perilous adventures. 



The Real Danger 



But now this is not a hypothetical danger. At this very 
moment Delcasse's intrigue recommences. He is ready to 
repeat the coup of 1905. 

A terrible war between England and Germany is pre- 
paring. In all parts of the globe the two adversaries are 
measuring and threatening each other. The affair of the Bag- 
dad Railway and the question of the fortifications of Flushing 
show to what degree the crisis has become acute. 

But for fighting the two powers need the assistance of 
France. 

Germany lacks capital and needs our money. 

England, which does not have compulsary military ser- 
vice, needs our army. 

Our government is accordingly the master of the situa- 
tion. If it refuses "William II our gold and George V our 
soldiers, peace is almost assured. 

But here Cruppi negotiates a military alliance with 
England. 

If it is signed, we shall be compelled to fight on the 
plains of Belgium in order to assure to the gentlemen in Lon- 
don the possession of Antwerp ; and we shall then at one 
stroke be exposed to all the dangers of a German invasion. 

And so this veritably astonishing thing happens. All the 
foreign newspapers are talking of this military alliance. All 
the great French newspapers are reproducing the comment 
of the foreign press. Not one has dared to say that the news 
is incorrect. 

Nevertheless no one in France has said anything. Not a 
single deputy has risen to ask that the government make a 
denial or give an explanation. Not a single Socialist leader, 
in the presence of such serious reports, has dared to even 
question the Minister of Foreign Affairs. 

A single voice has been raised to call attention to the 
danger. Merrheim of the C. G. T., recently a delegate at the 
International Metallurgical Congress, could see with his eyes 
how acute the Anglo-German situation has become. On his 



return from Birmingham he signalled the danger in the "Vfe 
Ouvriere. " 

But no one budged. 

The Anglo-German Duel 

Very well ! Here Mr. Delcasse returns to power. 

The man who in 1905 nearly involved us in a war with- 
out consulting either public opinion, or Parliament, or even 
his own colleagues, again takes over the direction of "our" 
foreign policy. For no one in Europe is deceived. M. Cruppi, 
former magistrate, will be only a straw man at the Quai 
d'Orsay. Moreover, M. Delcasse, the Minister of the Marine, 
will then be more at ease to conclude the military treaty 
which must bind us to England. 

In a few weeks perhaps our financiers will have sold the 
skins of a hundred thousand Frenchmen to their colleagues 
in London in exchange for a few Turkish or Ethiopian rail- 
ways. 

It is time for those who do not want to see themselves 
treated as dumb brutes to open their eyes, to consider calmly 
the European situation, and to see the dangerous intrigue in 
which our financial oligarchy is about to engage. 

The Commercial Wars 

Formerly the nations were peoples of peasants, and 
naturally their leaders pursued an agricultural policy ; their 
dream was to expand their territory and to annex their 
neighbors' fields. That is why their conflicts were frontier 
conflicts and their wars for annexation and conquest. Vic- 
torious Napoleon took possession of Belgium; the conquerer 
Bismarck annexed Alsace-Lorraine, etc. 

But today all this is changed. The great European 
nations are governed by men of affairs — bankers, manufac- 
turers, export merchants. The aim of these men is to seek 
everywhere markets for their rails, their cotton goods, their 
capital. Throughout the whole world they struggle for the 
control of the railways, loans, and mining concessions, etc. 
And if, perchance, two rival groups cannot agree on the 
exploitation of new countries, they appeal to arms. 

Thus we saw the Japanese fight with the Chinese in 
1895 for the exploitation of Korea ; in 1898 the Americans 
battled with the Spaniards for the exploitation of Cuba. In 
1899 England fought with the Boers for the possession of 
the Transvaal mines; in 1900 all Europe invaded Pekin to 

—9— 



impose their railways upon the Chinese; finally, in 1904, the 
Japanese and Russians slaughtered each other for eighteen 
months to find out who should have the right to exploit 
Manchuria. 

Five wars in ten years ! The triumph of Pacifism ! None 
of these wars resulted in conquest — Manchuria will always 
be a part of the Celestial Empire ; China has kept its Emperor ; 
South Africa is an autonomous political unity, and Cuba is 
an independent republic. But their railroads, their loans, 
their import duties are all the booty of the victors. 

Our great modern financial oligarchies are not looking 
for subjects, but customers; they do not engage in "patriotic" 
wars after the old fashion. 

These men of affairs wage commercial wars. 

The English Industry vs. the German Industry 

But now a conflict is preparing itself, compared to which 
the horrible slaughter of the Russo-Japanese war will be 
child's play. 

At all points over the globe the English capitalists are 
struggling with the German capitalists, and one can see no 
other way out but war — provided the working classes of 
both countries do not revolt. 

During the entire nineteenth century England was the 
undisputed queen of the industrial world. It was said of 
her: "She is a block of iron on a block of coal." She had 
an abundant supply of minerals to manufacture engines and 
the coal which is necessary to drive them. She could, there- 
fore, ahead of all other nations, develop an incomparable 
industry. And the sea, which completely surrounds her, per- 
mitted her to build a navy without equal. 

And thus during a century, the spinners and weavers of 
Manchester and the steel mills of Birmingham spread over 
the whole world their cotton goods, cloths, hardware, their 
rails and locomotives, realizing, without great effort, mag- 
nificent profits. 

Only France, already much in arrears, offered a weak 
competition ; it is on that account that our capitalists formerly 
preached to the people of the hatred of "perfidious Albion." 

Finally, in 1898, at the time of the Fashoda incident, 
France, i. e., the oligarchy governing France, gave up its 
pretensions to great power. And England believed herself 
the undisputed mistress of the world's commerce. 

—10— 



But there an unexpected rival arose. Up to 1870 Ger- 
many was an almost exclusively agricultural country ; but 
her soil was poor and 300,000 Germans emigrated every year 
to distant America, seeking a more fertile soil, which would 
support them. 

After the war insensibly all this changed. Bismarck, 
whom our chauvinists picture to us as planning continually 
to charge his Uhlans against us, had only one idea — to make 
of his country a great industrial nation like Great Britain. 

Little by little, on the banks of the Rhine, in Westphalia, 
in Saxony, in Silesia, there arose great blast furnaces, steel 
mills and forges ; millions of spindles turned in the cotton 
mills ; woolen mills, chemical industries and great shipyards 
sprang up as if by magic. The railways of all the small 
states were placed under one management ; the government 
dredged or canalized the streams ; the admirably constructed 
harbors were fitted up in first-class order, and a merchant 
marine, becoming gradually stronger, carried the flag and 
the merchandise of the Empire to all quarters of the globe. 

Then the English began to grow uneasy. At first they 
had regarded the efforts made by the heavy Saxons to copy 
their industry with a disdainful smile. They asserted and 
believed that the Germans manufactured nothing but trash. 

Yet this "trash" overwhelmed them. To relieve them- 
selves of it they enacted a law that all articles of German 
manufacture should bear the trade-mark, "Made in Ger- 
many." They sought thus to discredit their rivals. 

But what was their surprise when they discovered that 
a very large number of excellent articles which had been 
previously accepted as the best products of English industry, 
came directly from Westphalia, Saxony or Silesia ! Thus it 
appeared that the astute German manufactured better and 
cheaper wares than the English ! 

Instead of discrediting them they had given them a very 
effective advertisement ! This caused a veritable commotion 
amongst the coterie of Glasgow, Birmingham and Manchester 
capitalists. 

At the same time, from all the principal markets of the 
globe, the English consuls, who watch international com- 
merce, sent disquieting reports to London. 

From everywhere they reported the presence and activity 
of German traveling salesmen, engineers and promoters, who 
were taking all the orders and securing concessions and loans. 

—11— 



A consul in Syria wrote to his government: "Formerly 
all the European products used here were purchased in Eng- 
land. Today I am writing to you on a table manufactured 
in Germany, with a German pen on German paper. Soon 
there will be nothing English left but myself." 

On all sides the progress of British commerce was declin- 
ing; while that of German commerce was increasing with 
disquieting rapidity. 



The Bagdad Railway 



Naturally the Kaiser supported the efforts of his mer- 
chants and bankers with all the forces at the disposal of his 
diplomacy. Everywhere his ambassadors endeavored to ob- 
tain concessions and orders for his countrymen. 

Colonies were founded in Africa ; they built railways 
across China; the mines of Chile were exploited, etc. 

But it was especially upon Turkey that the people of 
Berlin cast their eyes. 

In 1903, William II obtained from the Sultan Abdul- 
Hamid the concession of the Bagdad Railway, about which 
so much fuss is made at present by our great newspapers. 

It runs for a stretch of 2800 kilometres (about 1700 
miles), from Constantinople to the head of the Persian Gulf. 
It is a matter of nearly two hundred million dollars. One 
may easily imagine the great returns such an enterprise will 
yield to the bankers, iron works and promoters on the other 
side of the Rhine. 

But it was found that this German railroad terminated 
in Mesopotamia in a region which the English always con- 
sidered as a reservation for their own commerce. And, be- 
sides, this railway can, in a few days, transport Turkish 
troops into the neighborhood of Bombay and threaten the 
British domination of India. 



The Appeal to Arms 



At this the English capitalists took fright. Their first 
surprise was changed to uneasiness and later into fury. 

Today in all parts of the globe, in the Balkan Peninsula, 
in Turkey, from Persia to China, in Central America, in 
Brazil, in the Argentine Republic and to Chile, the bankers 
of Berlin and London, the ship-owners of Liverpool and Ham- 
burg, the industrial magnates of Glasgow and Essen, are 
involved in a struggle. 

—12— 



To defend at least the colonial commerce, Mr. Chamber- 
lain, the head of the Birmingham steel industry, proposed a 
protective tariff ; but the English workingmen unanimously 
rejected the same, as this project would have increased the 
cost of living. After this the great capitalists who govern 
England saw only one solution. 

It would be necessary at all costs to do away with this 
unexpected rival who was threatening British dominance in 
all the markets of the world. Since the industrial competi- 
tion could not be settled by peaceful means, recourse would 
have to be had to Dreadnoughts and an appeal to cannon. 

Towards this goal the English government is working 
with marvelous co-operation. 

That is how in our capitalistic societies the struggle 
betwen groups of rival financiers embroils nations in war. 

The Isolation 

So England, feeling herself beaten in the industrial fight, 
decided to appeal to the fortune of arms. 

Her plan is a double one : 

(1) To encircle Germany by a system of ententes and 
alliances which will leave her isolated in the heart of Europe 
without military or financial support at the time of danger. 

Thus we saw Edward VII in 1903 approach Prance and 
conclude with our financiers the entente eordiale and abandon 
Morocco (which, by the way, did not belong to him) to them. 

Soon after he reconciled himself to the Czar by making 
some concessions in Persia and the Balkan states; he sought 
to detach Italy from the triple alliance by offering her Al- 
bania ; he aroused the traditional hatred of the Germans by 
the Hungarians; aided the young Turks with money and 
advice to overthrow Abdul Hamid for being too closely allied 
to William II. And soon we could see the day when Germany 
would be completely surrounded by hostile powers, finding 
herself alone in facing her redoutable enemy. 

The Era of the Dreadnought 

(2) At the same time they committed themselves in 
London to formidable armaments. 

The English engineers constructed the first Dreadnought, 
these gigantic vessels of 18, 20 and 22 thousand tons, carrying 
mounted in their turrets, thirty-four centimeter guns, throw- 
ing enormous shells of melinite 9000 metres. 

—13— 



Then all the principal battleships cruising in all the 
oceans of the world for protecting the empire "on which the 
sun never sets" were recalled and concentrated at the naval 
ports of the mother country. 

These naval bases were changed. The principal ones had 
formerly been located at Plymouth, facing France, the ancient 
enemy. 

They are now at Dover and Rosyth (Scotland), both 
commanding the entrance to the North Sea, the one in the 
south, the other in the north ; both face towards Germany. 

To stimulate the warlike feeling of the English people 
and arouse them to support the enormous cost of the naval 
programs, the entire fleet was drawn up in the Thames two 
years ago, from the mouth to the Port to London, to crystal- 
lize enthusiasm by the grand spectacle of the naval strength 
of the nation. 

Finally journalists and ministers of the distant colonies 
were brought from all parts of the globe, from Australia, 
South Africa, Canada and New Zealand. They were shown 
what heavy costs the mother country had imposed upon her- 
self; they were solemnly told that British preponderance was 
threatened. They were asked to contribute their share of 
the costs and to vote some battleships. 

This was done. Today they build Dreadnoughts for 
account of the colonies, which also recruit, train and arm 
corps of volunteers. 

All the forces of the empire in the five continents are 
today being strained in one immense effort to be ready for 
war. 

Naturally enough the Germans, in the presence of this 
terrible menace, have not remained inactive. 

But suddenly the Emperor sounded the alarm. In 1898 
he uttered the famous words: "Our future lies on the 
water." Then he set to work designing and planning battle- 
ships and asked the Reichstag to vote a naval program. 

At first the representatives did not understand and re- 
fused. But soon, thanks to the efforts of the Navy League, 
merchants, manufacturers and financiers were apprised of the 
threatening danger. 

And thereafter, program followed program. Super- 
Dreadnoughts were added to Dreadnoughts; the great ship- 
yards of Bremen, Hamburg and Stettin worked with feverish 
activity. 

• —14— 



In order to meet these collossal expenses, the good- 
natured Germans consented, not without regret, to having 
taxes imposed even upon their beer and tobacco. 

In 1914, when these programs will have actually been 
carried out, England will have thirty Dreadnoughts, Germany 
twenty-six. 

The forces will be almost equal. 

The War of Factories 

What kind of a war will this be? 

It is here we must depart from traditional ideas. It wil 
not be a question of England's landing 100,000 men on the 
coasts of Hanover for marching on Berlin. 

Nor will it be a question of Germany to hurl a landing 
force against London. 

With the present development of naval forces this is 
nearly impossible ; and, moreover, it would serve no purpose. 

It is not a war of annexation or conquest which they 
would wage, but a commercial war. That is why there will 
be a return to the old methods of preying upon shipping and 
continental blockades. 

What does England want? To ruin the Germany indus- 
try. A good way to do so is to deprive her of raw materials 
and prevent her exports. 

That does not appear impracticable. 

These great factories of the Rhine, of Saxony, of Silesia ; 
these steel mills, cotton and woolen mills, which have carried 
on against their competitors of Birmingham and Manchester 
such terrible competition, with what do they operate? 

They work iron ores which come from Spain and Sweden, 
cotton coming from the United States and Egypt ; wool from 
the cape, from Australia and Argentina. And all these in- 
dispensible raw materials arrive by sea, notably through the 
two great ports of Bremen and Hamburg. 

And when they have manufactured in enormous quan- 
tities the rails, locomotives, machines, cotton goods, cloths 
and fabrics which have partly supplanted English products, 
whence are they shipped? To Turkey, to Africa, to North 
and South America, to China, and also to Japan. It means 
that the greater part of Germany's exportations goes by sea, 
and principally from the two great ports of Bremen and 
Hamburg. 

—15— 



Very well : Suppose these two harbors and their neigh- 
bors on the North Sea are blockaded by an English fleet ; 
immediately no more iron ore, cotton or wool can reach the 
factories along the Rhine, in Saxony and Silesia. The finished 
products cannot be exported, thus encumbering warehouses ; 
no more can money come back to them; the dividends cease, 
and idleness becomes a harsh task-master. Grain and meat, 
which they bring in quantities from America, can no longer 
arrive, and the price of foodstuffs rises. Misery gradually 
bears down upon all the people. 

It may be said that these merchants will endeavor to 
export and import by rail, and to make use of the foreign 
railways and ports, such as Dunkerque, Genoa and Trieste. 

But this means of transportation is infinitely more costly 
than that by boat; it would suffice to hamper German in- 
dustry during the entire extent of the war. In the meantime, 
supposing, which is probable, the ocean trade to be open 
to British ships during this time. The British products will 
little by little regain their former preponderance in all the 
great markets of the globe. 

The London government will take advantage of its mil- 
itary superiority for making treaties and tariff agreements 
with various countries, will offer inducements for orders for 
rails, for concessions for railways, and wherever it can will 
create private "spheres of influence," like Morocco and 
Egypt. 

"When the war is over, Germany will find her place taken 
and the German industry will find itself in an inferior position 
for perhaps a century. 

Thus bottling-up the harbors of the North Seat will be 
the aim of the future war. 

The English Manoeuvres 

And so that it may not be said: "These are all hypoth- 
eses, ingenious, probable perhaps, but after all only plain 
suppositions" — it must be recalled that the object of the 
great English naval manoeuvres two years ago was intercep- 
tion of merchant vessels passing between Spain and Ireland. 

Over all this vast stretch the Admiralty had strung an 
immense line of battleships and cruisers, barring the entrance 
to the channel. And all the British merchant vessels (in 
case of war they would, of course, have been German vessels) 
which undertook to break through this line were halted and 
captured. 

—16— 



Likewise, here is the object of last year's manoeuvres: 
"Supposing a hostile fleet in the Atlantic, another in the 
North Sea, could an English fleet in the channel prevent 
their union?" 

It is known that notwithstanding a strict watch, the 
squadron representing the German fleet coming from Bremen 
succeeded in breaking through the straits of Calais and 
passing through the Channel. 

This caused a shiver of fear in all England and resulted 
in a vote of four additional battleships. 

Therefore, according to the British Admiralty, the object 
of the next war must be to blockade the German ports and 
cut off the German merchant fleet, to prevent supplies from 
reaching its factories and the exportation of German products. 

It is a kind of continental blockade that we shall see, as 
in the time of the great duel between Napoleon I and Eng- 
land. 

And -now since that is established, we can understand 
what role will be played by France in this merciless struggle. 

To destroy by force the German industry, which troubles 
England, England has but one means— to cut off her sources 
of raw materials and shut off her exports by blockading her 
ports. 

Suppose that the London Cabinet has decided on the 
blockade. 

Some dark night, without warning anyone (for nowa- 
days war is started and declared afterwards), an English 
squadron will cross the North Sea and station itself at the 
mouth of the Elbe, stopping all ships coming from Hamburg. 
Another squadron will station itself at the mouth of the 
Weser and bar the way for ships coming from Bremen. They 
can pass no more. 

At the same time a fleet of cruisers will patrol the Chan- 
nel and another will cruise between Scotland and Norway, 
stopping one after another, all the merchant ships destined 
for Germany. 

The enemy's industry is blockaded. 

Will all then be lost? And will the proud .Kaiser be 
forced to capitulate? 

Not at all. 

—17— 



The Backdoors of Germany 

I have just said that the manufacturing establishments 
on the Rhine, in Saxony, and in Silesia, supply themselves 
with raw materials solely through Bremen and Hamburg. 
That is not exact. 

There are two other ports that play almost as im- 
portant a role in the economic life of Germany. 

They are Rotterdam, and still more Antwerp. 

Rotterdam, situated on the Rhine not far from its mouth, 
receives by thousands, the boats which, ascending that stream, 
bring to the blast furnaces and cotton mills of Westphalia, 
the iron ore, cotton and wool necessary for their business. 

Likewise Antwerp, on the large estuary of the Schelde, 
is much nearer to Essen than Bremen. From there, by rail- 
way and the Belgian canals, the Rhenish industry obtains a 
large part of its raw materials. And it is by this route that 
it exports and distributes over the world the greater portion 
of its finished products. 

Rotterdam and Antwerp have also become two great 
depots of the German industry. They are, commercially 
speaking, two German cities. 

Only politically are they two foreign cities — Rotterdam 
being located in Holland and Antwerp in Belgium. 

This is a fact of capital importance. 

In effect, at the first sign of war, what will the Germans 
do? All of their ships finding themselves in foreign harbors 
at that time will denationalize themselves. They will hoist 
the Belgian, Dutch, Norwegian, Danish and French flags. 
Then quietly they will sail for Rotterdam or Antwerp. 

What can the English navy do? Nothing at all, because 
they are neutral ships sailing for neutral harbors. 

All these ships will unload their wares at the wharves 
of Antwerp, whence they will be carried by the Belgian canals 
and rivers to supply German factories. At the same time 
they can load finished products arriving for them from West- 
phalia, Saxony and Silesia, and quietly pass under the noses 
of the enormous English warships, which cannot fire their 
formidable guns at them, for they are theoretically Belgian 
wares carried in Belgian ships. 

One can then understand the international importance of 
these two ports. Antwerp and Rotterdam are the backdoors 

—18— 



of the German fortress, by which she will continue to com- 
municate with the outside world. As long as they are open, 
England may well blockade Bremen and Hamburg ; she may 
well patrol the seas with her monstrous Dreadnoughts ; all 
her efforts will be in vain ; she will see under the very mouths 
of her cannons the German industry resupply its factories 
and distribute as before its products all over the world. 

That is why the Kaiser is using all his power to keep 
open Rotterdam and Antwerp. 

For the same reason the government of George V is using 
all its power to close them. 

The Belgian Neutrality 

As to Rotterdam, this will, perhaps, not be difficult. 
Holland lias for a long time been drawn into the circle of 
influence of German politics ; her railways are in part under 
the control of Berlin ; her government follows willingly the 
suggestions of William IT. 

In case of conflict, whether she wills or not, her cities 
and harbors would probably from the first hour be occupied 
by Prussian troops. 

England could then treat her as a belligerent power and 
try to take Rotterdam by force of arms. 

But it is not so with Antwerp. 

Belgium, they say, is a neutral country. By a solemn 
treaty all the neighboring powers have agreed in case of war 
to respect her territory. At the same time if one of them 
should undertake to march its troops through Belgium, all 
the others must arm themselves to prevent it. 

This is a great obstacle for England, because it is simply 
indispensable for her to have Antwerp closed, and she can- 
not accomplish this without violating treaties and running 
the risk of starting a European war. 

Happily there is a means of circumventing this obstacle. 
Antwerp is not dirtcly on the sea ; it is like Rouen, Nantes 
and Bordeaux, a river port located 70 kilometers inland. 
Therefore, to block its access it is not necessary to land 
there; it is sufficient to station a scjuadron at the mouth 
of the river to bar the passage for merchant vessels. 

The Question of Flushing- 
Only here a new difficulty arises. 

—19— 



The mouth of the Schelde is within Dutch territory and 
is dominated by a Dutch city, Flushing. Now, the govern- 
ment of Queen Wilhelmina — evidently prompted by William 
II — decides to fortify that city. 

Suppose that this project is carried into effect ; that 
formidable batteries are trained on the mouth of the Schelde, 
and that a German fleet be stationed under its protection. 
Thus having provided a good naval base it would force the 
English dreadnoughts to keep at a distance ; and they would 
try with all their forces to keep open the navigation of the 
Schelde, the entrance and exit of the port of Antwerp, and 
there are chances that they would succeed. 

Now one can understand the rage which took possession 
of all the high officials in England at the news that the 
Dutch government was going to fortify Flushing ! Not only 
has this small place considerable importance of itself, but it 
is the key to the port of Antwerp. And if Antwerp is not 
"bottled up" then it is all up with the cabinet of London's 
project of blockade imposed by the imperious logic of facts. 

Then the entire English press strove to overwhelm Hol- 
land with threats. And the serious Times itself, the official 
organ of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, declared, repeating 
a famous saying: "Flushing fortified is a pistol pointed at 
the heart of England." 

Intimidated perhaps by these threats, the Dutch govern- 
ment and parliament have not yet put their plan into execu- 
tion. But from now on the question is a serious one, and 
one of the gravest confronting Europe. 

It is necessary for England's triumph over Germany that 
Antwerp be closed; to enable Germany to resist, Antwerp 
must remain open. It is a vital question for both. 

It is, therefore, around Antwerp that the fate of the two 
empires will be decided ; and it is on the plains of Belgium 
that the economic domination of the old world Avill be deter- 
mined between the two great nations. 

But the neutrality of Belgium has been guaranteed by 
France. That is why each of the two powers is endeavoring 
at this moment to draw us into this serious conflict. 

"Very well," you say, "if England and Germany abso- 
lutely insist on fighting, let them do so! As for us, let us 
keep out of the quarrel and remain neutral." 

That is wisdom itself; unfortunately it is not practicable, 
for each of the two adversaries want to involve us in the 
conflict. 

—20— 



England needs our army; Germany needs our money. 
Both are pulling us; one this way, one that. 

And this is the secret of the chauvinistic agitation which 
the press is fomenting at present. It is only a beginning. 
Very good reason for investigating the situation with cool 
heads. 

England Needs Our Army 

England, as I have shown, "in order to throttle German 
industry, must absolutely blockade Antwerp. But she must 
also reckon that the Kaiser will not permit her to do this 
without resistance. 

At the first sign of war — and even before the official 
declaration — it is probable that a German fleet will station 
itself at Flushing under the protection of the Dutch Forts, 
and that a Prussian army corps will advance with forced 
marches to occupy Antwerp. 

If this manoeuvre succeeds and an English squadron can- 
not take the first step, then Antwerp must be taken by land. 

But there the method of operation changes: the sea 
blockade will be superceded by continental war. 

England must disembark troops in Belgium; it is neces- 
.sary that these troops bar the route of the Prussian army 
and throw it back upon the Rhine or Meuse. 

That is why Lord Kitchener, the great English General, 
spoke these famous words: "The frontier of the British 
Empire in Europe is not the Straits of Calais, but the line 
of the Meuse." 

A strange formula, which shows what neutrality counts 
for, in both camps ! 

But with what troops will England occupy this frontier? 
This is where the London Cabinet meets with difficulties. 

It is well known that England does not have compulsory 
military service. She alone in Europe has declined to place 
the heavy burden of a "national army" upon her citizens. 
Secure in tbe power of her fleet, she has been content until 

now with a small army of professional soldiers and a reserve 
of 200,000 volunteers, brave men, but without training or 
discipline, and which the Secretary of War, Mr. Haldane, 
himself denounced as insufficient. 

We know what a sad figure this army cut in facing the 
Boers. 

—21— 



However, if war should break out with Germany, Eng- 
land would have to measure itself, not with peasants, brave 
but undisciplined, having no knowledge of tactics, but with 
a regular army, perfectly equipped and trained, splendidly 
organized, and which is considered to be the best in Europe. 

We can see the London "volunteers," with their parade 
officers, in battle after six weeks' fighting with the German 
army! 

In the presence of this great danger the general 
staff sounded the alarm. In Parliament, the Commander in 
Chief, Lord Roberts, made the following statement: "There 
is only one remedy for the present situation : Compulsory 
military service for all Englishmen." 

Unfortunately this remedy appeared not to be quite to 
the taste of the English people. 

They have always believed, it a considerable advantage 
not to be obliged to spend two years of their lives in the 
barracks in fatiguing and unproductive drill. 

Of course, chauvinistic ideas are just as strong there as 
they are on the continent. The imperialism of the "great 
English" is all the more belligerent, since everyone well 
knows that he is not required to spill his own blood for the 
glory of the Empire. 

But if all had to shoulder gun and knapsack and fight 
in the plains of Belgium to insure the victory of Mr. Cham- 
berlain's ideas, it is probable that the English chauvinists 
would lose many of their followers. 

Liberals and Conservatives are aware of this powerful 
opposition of the popular sentiment. They know that by im- 
posing compulsory military service on the citizens of free 
England they would forever ruin their belligerent policy. 
After several fruitless attempts in the House of Lords the 
measure was rejected. 



But nevertheless they have to get troops to occupy Bel. 
gium and throw the Prussians back on the Meuse. 

Then not finding them at home, they thought of France. 

"We. lack soldiers," they said, "but France has them. 
Over there beyond the Straits of Calais is a numerous army, 
well trained, well disciplined, well equipped, capable, in one 
word, of resisting Germany. The French are brave, they are 
aggressive ; they like war and know how to wage it ; if we 
can impress them with the catchphrase 'national honor,' 'the 

—22— 



highest interest of patriotism' and 'civilization,' they will 
march. Let us try to interest the French army with us. 

"That will not be so difficult. French democracy is for 
show. The people are in reality governed by an oligarchy 
of financiers and steel magnates who control the press and 
politicians. 

"Let us bargain with these people. Let us promise them 
some large war loans, whereby their banks can earn high 
commissions. Let us bind ourselves to obtain for them some 
orders of railroads in Turkey and some large concessions in 
Syria, Ethiopia and Morocco. 

"And for which few millions they will sell us the French 
army. ' ' 

******* 

Thus reasoned these brave people; and their politicians 
started to work. 

In 1903, immediately after the close of the Transvaal 

War, Edward VII went to Paris, and all the amiable dunces 
who had so often cried "Long Live Kruger" were now 
bought by the press to cry "Long Live England." 

In order to recompense us for Egypt, where we held 
financial control, the London Cabinet generously gave us 
Morocco — which did not belong to them. 

And at all our financial banquets they acclaimed the 
"entente cordiale." 

But that did not suffice. 

Delcasse, who in 1905 wished to involve us in a war with 
Germany, having been overthrown, England saw that she 
would have to act with prudence. 

She waited until that friend and companion of Edward 
VII came back into power. As if by chance, he is appointed 
Minister of Marine, and — also as if by chance — on the eve of 
his success it was announced that negotiations were under 
way between London and Paris for the conclusion of a 
military treaty. 

This treaty, let it be well understood, will be defensive. 
But it will be easy for the British Government in blockading 
Antwerp to force Germany to declare war. 

And then we, the French, will have to do the fighting 
on the Belgian plains, not for the King of Prussia this time, 
but for the King of England! 



—23- 



That is what is in reality being engineered in the twi- 
light of diplomatic correspondence and the silence of the 
parliaments. 

England has always had need of a soldier on the con- 
tinent. Formerly, during the struggle with Napoleon, she 
paid the Austrian and Prussian troops to march against 
France. Today she wants to send our national infantry 
against the Prussians. 

The roles have been changed but the play is the same. 
It remains to be seen if we will play the game. 



France and Germany 



I know a great many brave Frenchmen who imagine that 
Emperor William every morning when taking his chocolate, 
asks himself whether he shall not give the order for mobiliza- 
tion and launch his Uhlans against Nancy. 

They believe that the only desire of the Prussians is to 
hurl themselves upon us. And it must be confessed that 
great newspapers do all they can to sustain this fear. 

It is indispensable for our steel magnates to secure votes 
for great numbers of cannon and battleships to enrich their 
stockholders. Without the fear of the German bogyman what 
would become of the dividends of Creusot's Gun Works? 

Furthermore, it must be recognized that the Berlin Gov- 
ernment plays exactly the same game with the German people. 
Since 1871 every time that Bismarck and his successors 
wished to procure from the Reichstag a new military septen- 
nate and modern armaments, they took two or three articles 
from La Patrie and a speech by Deroulede and dished up 
the whole with great bursts of eloquence in order to raise 
the spectre of Revanche ; and they obtained for their steel 
magnates all they wished. (We must not forget that the 
Emperor is one of the principal stockholders of the Krupp 
firm.) 

Thus we have on both sides the same game of threatening 
talk and stage effects. 

But how can we distinguish if these threats are sincere 
or a mere "metallic" bluff? 

To do so it suffices to examine the economic interests of 
the two powers. In Germany as in France, as in all the 
great European nations, it is these interests — and not the 
caprice of monarchs — which dominate the foreign policy and 
decide for peace or war. 

—24— 



No Economic Conflicts 



For forty years there has been no lack of opportunities 
for the Germans to attack and conquer us. That she has not 
done so is not because of sympathy for us. It is because the 
Germans have been entirely absorbed by the idea of making 
a great industrial nation of their country. 

In the "La Force Allemande" I told how, by patient, 
continuous, methodic efforts, they have succeeded. 

Today their very success makes them rivals of Great 
Britain. 

But have they any reasons for entering into a conflict 
with us? 

From a commercial point of view Germany sells almost 
as much to France as she buys from her. For twenty years 
exports and imports have been almost balanced. 

As for the other part, the Germans export to all the 
markets of the world products of current use — machines, 
hardware, cotton goods, etc. We, on the other hand, export 
none but articles of luxury — Paris wares, dresses, jewelry, 
etc. — wherein the German taste cannot compete with ours. 

There is thus neither commercial competition nor any 
economic conflict. 

"But," someone may say, "there are our colonies. Ger- 
many has none ; would she not take ours ? ' ' 

Those w r ho entertain such ideas I advise to read the 
report of Mr. Violette. They will see the lamentable condi- 
tion of our colonies. Only one is self-sustaining — Indo-China 
— and the system of Doumer has so burdened it down that 
it is on the eve of a general revolt. 

Moreover, just before a grave conflict with England, 
William II cannot afforcl to multiply his vulnerable points on 
the face of the globe. He prefers rather to colonize Turkey 
in Asia under the cover of Ottoman independence. 

There remains the conquest of a French province. Alas ! 
Germany is still suffering from the abuse of its annexations — 
in a hundred and fifty years she has not been able to digest 
Poland ; Danish Schleswig and even Hanover give her nothing 
but trouble ; and she was compelled to grant self-government 
to the Alsace-Lorraines, whom she has not been able to govern. 

There is only one piece of territory which she might 
want. The Empire has no iron ores. But just on the frontier, 
in the Department Meurthe-et-Moselle have been discovered 

—25— 



large deposits, some of the richest in the world. The indus- 
trials beyond the Rhine might be tempted to demand their 
annexation. 

But it is quite superfluous, because our capitalists them- 
selves have ceded to their German rivals, by liberal consents 
of participation, a considerable portion of their concessions. 
Why should William II exert himself to take by force a 
treasure which our great patriotic steel magnates daily deliver 
to him of their own accord? 

In truth I have searched for reasons why the Germans 
should attack us; I have not found them. 

The Franco-German Syndicate of 1902 

On the other hand I see plainly the reasons they have 
for treating us fairly. 

Primarily, and that is the essential point, they need our 
money. 

To create an industry, capital is necessary, and Germany 
has not enough money. No doubt she realizes great profits 
every year. But she is a relatively new country ; she has not 
the strong reserves of the old nations like England and 
France, with industries one or two centuries older, and who 
have accumulated billions in their traditional "stockings." 

Every year the creation of new factories absorbs the 
national savings, and the more the country develops, the 
more money it needs. 

Where find this money except in France, in the country 
of capitalists without initiative, who do not know how to 
use this richest treasure of the world, and do not know any 
better than to lend it to foreigners? 

In 1902 William II tried to make a financial alliance 
with our banks. He has just succeeded in obtaining from the 
Sultan of Turkey the concession of the Bagdad Railway, 
which excited the envy of all Europe to a high degree. But 
Germany was just coming out of a commercial crisis and 
had no available capital. 

The Kaiser then approached our banks. A Franco-Ger- 
man syndicate was formed ; it had for its president, Arthur 
von Gwinner, president of the Deutsche Bank, and for vice- 
president, M. Vernes, the partner of Rothschild in the Com- 
pagnie du Nord and the Compagnie du Midi, manager of 
the Ban que de l'Union Parisienne, of the Banque Ottoman, 
of the Saloniki-Constantinople Railway, etc. After these came 
Rouvier, G. Auboyneau, etc. 

—26— 



The agreement made between the financiers, a diplomatic 
reapproachment became inevitable. And already M. Jules 
Lemaitre (he had not yet become nationalist and "camelot 
du roi") was preaching. friendship with Germany and to for- 
get the past. No doubt if the financial combination had 
succeeded we would today have an entente cordiale with 
Germany. 



The Visit of Edward VII 



But soon England became disquietened. 

In this economic struggle with Germany she has only one 
advantage — an abundance of capital. If France was to lend 
hers to England's rival, the British supremacy would be 
definitely compromised. 

Soon, at the beginning of 1903, Edward VII came to 
Paris in great pomp. 

The stupefied Parisians, who tAvo years before had 
shouted, "Long live Kruger! Down with Chamberlain!" 
had suddenly to learn that they must henceforth cry, "Long 
live Edward VII!" 

What took place between the King and Delcasse, Vernes 
and some others, history alone can tell. One fact is certain : 
The following day after the departure of the King for Lon- 
don, the financial agencies announced that M. Vernes and 
his group had retired from the Bagdad Railway enterprise 
and that the Franco-German syndicate had been dissolved. 

One year later the entente cordiale was concluded with 
England. 

In return for giving up entirely the financial control of 
Egypt, and to reimburse our capitalists for their participa- 
tion in the Bagdad project, the London Cabinet made us a 
present of Morocco. They gave it all the more willingly 
since it did not belong to them, and we can see today from 
what happened at Fez that a bearskin cannot be bought 
before the bear is killed ! 

However that may be, M. Delcasse, henceforth insepar- 
ably allied with the fortune of England, soon committed him- 
self to a policy of encircling Germany and dragging us into 
a war with her. 

We know how he was ousted by Rouvier in 1905. 

—27— 



The Efforts of William II 

At this moment William II had a fine opportunity to 
attack us — our entire Nationalist press is unanimous in de- 
claring that our invincible generals would have been beaten 
then. 

The Kaiser did not do it. Oh, not for sympathy for 
France. It is simply because his interests counselled him to 
forbear. 

Far from attacking us he tried everything to renew the 
relations with our business men. Ever since 1906 in Asia 
Minor, in the Ouenza Syndicate, in the Union of Moroccan 
Mines, he planned to associate the German capitalists with 
the French capitalists. He had constituted officially a small 
Franco-German syndicate at Glarus, Switzerland, for the 
issuance of stock for the Bagdad Railway, his banks borrowed 
every four months large sums at high interest from the Credit 
Lyonnaise. Through all these means he endeavored to restore 
matters to the condition of 1903, before the visit of Edward 
VII to Paris. Have we not seen at the time of the famous 
accident to the dirigible Patrie that the Kaiser was first 
to send wreaths to the funeral of the killed officers? 

Once more these manifestations of friendship were not 
disinterested. If William II tried by all means to secure 
reapproachment between our two countries, it was because 
he needed us. It is because his industry requires the assist- 
ance of our capital in order to promote its development. And 
that alone is already a guarantee that Germany does not try 
to make war on us. 

But it is especially in case of an Anglo-German conflict 
that the French savings would become necessary to the Kaiser. 
And it is that which makes the situation of our country so 
delicate. 

The Salvation of the Empire is at the Paris Bourse 

It is two years since at Hamburg there was held a con- 
gress of German bankers, where all who counted for anything 
in the financial circles of the country attended. 

The report said: "Our military mobilization has been 
made and well made; but our financial mobilization is not 
ready. A war with England would cost at least five billion 
francs a year and would last probably two years." 

These ten billions — where is Germany to find them? 
Evidently not in London or New York. There are only the 
two Austrian and Italian allies, who cannot furnish this 
money — they have not enough for themselves. And she will 

—28— 



do more get it from the Czar of all Russians! Then it re- 
mains for France, this rich country which does not know 
what to do with its savings, the France which this year sub- 
scribed loans for six billion francs (4400 millions are foreign 
securities). It is the French bondholders who recently loaned 
two billions to Russia which made it possible for her to 
resist the assaults of Japan for two years. 

If they should deign to do as much for Germany ! Then 
the war loans subscribed at Paris would go to replenish the 
war chests of Spandau; then the Kaiser would always find 
the sums necessary to repair his battleships, to equip his 
troops and feed his soldiers. There would be no industrial 
crisis and no financial crisis. Germany without exhaustion 
could sustain the English attack. 

The salvation of the Empire lies at the Paris Bourse ! 

That is the immense service that France solely by means 
of her savings can render her proud neighbor. And now we 
comprehend all the efforts of William II to draw her with 
smiles and threats, willingly or not, into his sphere. 

Unfortunately a loan of money to Germany would 
estrange us from England. The London Cabinet would never 
permit that France should furnish money to the Berlin people 
to pay for the shells to bombard the English fleet. And it is 
a known fact that in the whole world admittance of German 
securities to the official exchange of Paris would lead to an 
immediate rupture of the entente cordiale. 

Thus we are placed in a delicate position. Each of the 
two adversaries seeks to engage us one against the other — 
the one needs our money, the other our army — and we cannot 
give our assistance to the one without exposing ourselves 
to the reprisals of the other. 

There is one good solution, which is to remain neutral 
and to give neither military nor financial assistance to either 
one. 

But can we do it? Will Germany not try to take our 
money by force if we refuse her the loans which she needs? 
It is a serious problem which must not be decided without 
due reflection. 

Double War, Double Costs 

Assume the fight started between the two industrial 
rivals, and imagine that France remains neutral. 

At the very first news of the declaration of war — so 
writes Mr. Riesser, former president of the Bank of Darm- 

—29— 



stadt — in all Germany, orders will be cancelled, commercial 
transactions stopped and transportation facilities seized by 
the troops. Manual labor being scarce, the price of the 
necessities of life will rise, that of luxuries fall ; the capital- 
ists will withdraw their deposits from the banks, the credit 
establishments will see their chests become empty. 

Now then, just at that time the State is obliged to issue, 
step by step, loans for hundreds of millions to meet the ex- 
penses of the war. To attract the capitalists it will offer its 
obligations at very low prices. The German investors, in 
order to buy them, will sell their industrial securities, which 
will suffer a considerable depreciation. 

Gold becomes scarce at the moment when there is great 
need of it. A compulsory course for exchange will have to 
be declared for the banknotes. A financial crisis will be 
imminent. 

However, it might be that by keeping cool and by con- 
fidence in their government, German capitalists, especially 
if their fleet is not immediately vanquished, will succeed 
in averting this crisis. 

But suppose that France, bound by her military treaty 
with Great Britain, is compelled to fall in line. 

Soon the scene changes. It will suffice no more to send 
two army corps against Antwerp ; the entire army must be 
mobilized, a million men launched against the Meuse and 
the Vosges, must be transported, equipped and fed. This is 
no more one war, but two wars, which will have to be fought : 
the one on the sea, the other on land — and the latter will be 
at not the less cost. 

Frankly does anyone believe that Germany, which has 
not enough money for a naval war, would readily take upon 
herself the enormous burden of a continental war, if not 
compelled to? 

That would be madness. And the German statesmen, 
and above all the bankers who guide their policy have shown 
us that they know how to figure. 

France Taken as "Hostage" 

Oh, I know well that the chauvinistic journals beyond 
the Rhine (they exist there as well as with us) utter ferocious 
threats. The notorious Professor Schiemann, the German 
Deroulede, said: "In case of war with England we shall 
take France as hostage!" And the old Bismarckian Max- 
imilian Harden declared: "We shall invade France, we shall 

—30— 



impose upon her a war indemnity of twenty billion francs, 
and with this money we shall defray the expense of the 
campaign against the English. 

This is a simple bluff like our Nationalists like to use, 
which will not bear inspection for five minutes. Then before 
they can take away from us ten or twenty billions they 
first must have made headway against us. Even if the French 
army is as inferior as is assumed, it will resist easily for at 
least six weeks, just as the Aiistrians did at Sadowa and the 
troops of Napoleon before Sedan. But I learned from a 
general, who consented to discuss the subject with me at the 
Ecoles des Hautes Etudes Sociales, that during the first 
months of hostilities each army will spend from one to one 
and a half billion francs. 

At the precise time when Germany would need all her 
resources against England she would be compelled to use up 
a billion or two to wage war against Prance. It is very 
imprudent to chase two rabbits at one time, especially two 
rabbits of such size. 

"But," you will say, "with the war indemnity the Kaiser 
will get back his outlay and he will still have remaining a 
large sum to make war against England." 

Thus reason those who know nothing of financial matters. 
But do they really think that ten or fifteen billions can be 
paid in "a turn of the hand" like a bill at the grocers? 

After the disaster of 1870 it took us more than two years 
to pay the five billion francs to Germany ; and all of Europe, 
even the Prussians themselves, considered this a remarkable 
showing of strength. It is admitted that today France is 
richer than she was then. But if ten, fifteen, or even twenty 
billions were demanded of her, it would be very good if she 
took only three or four years to pay them. Even the first 
billion could not be raised before one or two years. And 
just then the war with England would already be over and 
the French money would come too late. 

It is precisely this they are counting on in London. They 
do not give themselves to any false illusions about our mil- 
itary strength ! They think we will be beaten on the plains 
of Belgium and will meet perhaps another Waterloo there. 
But we will have compelled Germany to meet simultaneously 
the expenses of a double war, on sea and land; we will have 
forced her to spend a billion or two for her army instead of 
employing this money to repair or replace her battleships. 
We will have contributed thus towards emptying her treasury. 



—31- 



But, as Louis XIV said: "The victory depends upon the 
last 100 sous piece." The Kaiser, weakened by his efforts 
on the continent, and not having enough capital to rehabiliate 
his fleet, will be obliged to capitulate. And that will be the 
triumph of George V. 

In truth, France will probably have been invaded, 
pillaged, burdened for a whole generation by an enormous 
war indemnity; but England will have vanquished her rival. 
Confronted by a conquered Germany and a weakened France, 
she will again attain and strengthen her absolute preponder- 
ance of the world. "Rule Britannia!" 

Those are the risks of a combination which tends to 
transform the entente cordiale — an excellent idea — into a mil- 
itary alliance — a dangerous thing. 

Germany has no interest in making war on us. 

Are we interested in binding ourselves to her adversary 
to attack her? 

It is this last point which remains to be examined. 

Neutrality is Possible 

Two attitudes are possible : 

We may take sides with one of the two powers ; or we 
may remain neutral. 

To take sides with Germany is very dangerous. Without 
doubt the Kaiser would not demand of us either ships or 
soldiers; he needs only our money. But the registry of Ger- 
man loans at the stock exchange would inevitably result in 
the rupture of the entente cordiale. And that would be the 
recommencement all over the world of this policy of pin- 
pricks which in 1898 led us to Fashoda. Never would any 
clear-headed Frenchman consent to that. 

To take sides with England is still more dangerous. The 
first regiment to cross the Belgian frontier for marching to 
Antwerp would unchain against us a formidable war. All 
of the French officers with whom I have consulted assure 
me that after the measures taken by the German Chief of 
Staff the shock of German attack would be of a suddenness 
and violence unheard of. 

What is to be done? 

Guard neutrality ? 

That is easy. England has only one means of forcing us 
to march on Antwerp, and Germany cannot compel us by 

—32— 



force to lend her our savings. For once more, she is finan- 
cially not in a position to maintain two Avars at the same 
time. The theory of France being held as a hostage is a 
boast of the German Derouledes. 

Under these circumstances only one attitude seems possi- 
ble, reasonable, prudent, conforming to the interest of the 
country and for the good of universal peace. 

The French government must say to the English: "You 
shall not have our army!" 

And to the Germans: "You shall not have our money!" 

Therefore, you will not fight each other, and France will 
not only have served her own interests, but also those of 
humanity. 

Or, well, if you absolutely insist on massacreing each 
other, very good, go ahead! But don't count on us to help 
you. In such fratricidal strife not one centime of French 
money, nor one drop of blood shall we shed. 

We shall say to the one as to the other — not a penny ! 
not a soldier ! 

That is doubtless what France would say, if she were 
consulted. 

The Mad Whirl of Absolutism 

Unfortunately she is not asked for her advice. In spite 
of democratic appearances it is known that the people do not 
govern and do not control their governors. A small band 
of capitalists has seized control of the administration and of 
the great financial associations; they hold in their hands the 
banks, mines, railways, steamship companies, water, gas and 
electric companies ; in fact, all the economic utilities of 
France. In the "Guerre Sociale" I have shown how they 
dominate the Parliament, dispose of the ministers, and have 
taken into their pay the great newspapers which mold public 
opinion. Skilfully hidden behind the democratic scenes, they 
are in reality the masters of the destinies of the country. 

But what kind of madness seems to have taken possession 
of these men — madness of absolute power, the same which 
carried away Louis XIV and ruined Napoleon. Rarely does 
such temptation offer itself to any single man or any class. 
Consider that France could really be the arbiter of the world. 
If she lends her soldiers to England the German colossus 
may collapse; if she lends her money to the Kaiser, the 
Prussians will have the best of it. and it is perhaps the 

—33— 



British Empire which will be dismembered and fall. What 
a temptation for an oligarchy without counterweights and 
without control to throw its sword into the balance and to 
decide which shall be the world empire ! Why would not 
such a role intoxicate Delcasse, a great "big head" with a 
small soul whom his courtiers compare to the great ministers 
of the past and who wants to impress on history his name 
as a Richelieu. 

The Financiers and Alsace-Lorraine 

I have mentioned the good people who, before the im- 
minence of an Anglo-German conflict, caught themselves 
dreaming of "revanche." 

Ah ! Alsace-Lorraine ! I give assurance that our finan- 
ciers never thought of it — never in their calculations, never 
in the combinations of our diplomatists can we find a trace 
of this idea. Would it pay us to reconquer Alsace, and what 
effect would it have on the dividends of our great banks? 

But there is more : Wonderful cotton mills have devel- 
oped at Muhlhausen ; powerful steel works, admirably 
equipped, have come into existence all along the frontier. 
Since they are superior to ours we had to protect ours 
against theirs by an import tariff. Suppose that the frontier 
were again set back to the Rhine, all these factories would 
make disastrous competition to Creusot, and the cotton mills 
of the Vosges, Lille and Rouen. They must remain outside 
of the line of custom houses. Not only have our business 
men not thought of taking Alsace-Lorraine back again, but 
if the Kaiser should offer it to them, they would not want it ! 
That is why they are allowing the dream of revenge among 
the people to be lulled to sleep. 

The Price of Blood 

But what do they want anyway? 
Just this : 

1. It is known that our business men received from Eng- 
land as a prize for the entente cordiale, Morocco ; they had to 
have the monopoly of the loans and public works, the rail- 
roads, harbors, telegraphs, etc. Compelled to go to Algeciras, 
they cannot console themselves for having to share all their 
concessions with Germany. A war would be a good way to 
oust an embarrassing partner and to recover the monopoly 
promised by England. 

2. Germany wishes to make of Turkey a preserve where 
the mines, loans and railways will be reserved for her own 

—34— 



citizens. It is a fine bait of which the Vitalis, the Auboy- 
neaus and Revoil of the Banque Ottomane, Rouvier of the 
Banque Francaise and Schneider of Creusot used to have 
first choice and the biggest share. Helping England to crush 
Gerinany would be a nice way to get rid of a serious com- 
petitor. They would then have only England with whom 
to share the lucrative honor of civilizing the Turks. 

3. In case of war, several billions would be borrowed 
in Paris, as much for account of London as for France. And 
our great banks cherish the memory of big profits realized 
in 1871 and 1872. 

These are the advantages which the financial oligarchy 
can draw from an intervention in the conflict. 

Of course, I know very well that in present day capitalis- 
tic circles it is necessary to develop commercial markets. But 
does that justify a war? Compare the mining concessions of 
Morocco, rich though they are, with the ravages of a war in 
France. Place on one side of the scale 600 miles of Turkish 
railway and in the other the horrible massacre by our engines 
of war, the suffering of the wounded, the grief of the wives 
and mothers, and the misery of the orphans; and tell me if 
the dividends of Creusot are worth the blood of 200,000 
young Frenchmen ! 

That is all the benefit which our country could receive 
from such an adventure. I defy anyone to prove the con- 
trary ! 

But these people are not the master of their own destinies. 
A small, irresponsible, but powerful, coterie exerts all its 
efforts on diplomacy and drags them along. 

They are the ones who involved us in the Morocco ad- 
venture. And we know that our generals more often obey 
its orders than those of the government. M. Ribot himself 
publicly complained of this. 

They are the ones who supported Delcasse in 1905 when 
he brought us to the point of war with Germany. They are 
the ones who today have returned him to power and seek to 
transform the entente cordiale into a military alliance. 

England knows their power; and that is why, without 
caring about parliament or public opinion, she treats with 
these men and in every way associates them with her affairs. 

The Plot 

Shall we be able to recognize any of the threads of this 
intrigue ? 

—35— 



Let ns follow the strange affair of Bernard Maimon, 
which it seems now, is to be suppressed. 

A journalist, M. Andre Tardieu, allied with the family 
of Waldeck-Rosseau, formerly Secretary of the Embassy, a 
high official of the Ministry of the Interior, editor of the 
foreign politics department of the Temps, the confident of 
the Ministers, with access to their private offices at all hours 
— is considered all over Europe to be the official mouthpiece 
of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It is from his articles 
that the other French newspapers, the foreign press, and even 
the European Cabinets, try to learn of the intentions of the 
French government. 

Now, England, to put a check on the German railway 
from Constantinople to Bagdad, is planning to build another 
road from Horns in Syria to Bagdad. 

An administrative committee is formed. Whom do we 
find : Sir Babington Smith, the right hand man of Sir Ernest 
Cassel, the former banker of Edward VII, Cherif Pascha, a 
Turkish general, who in Paris combatted vigorously the policy 
of the Comite Union et Progres ; and besides these, M. Andre 
Tardieu. 

The latter has made this enterprise a personal matter. 
He is exerting himself to obtain the support of the French 
government. 

However, M. Pichon hesitates to follow. Thereupon, M. 
Tardieu, in the Temps, though he had previously supported 
our Ministry faithfully, sharply criticized his policy. 

At the same time (through a mere coincidence, which 
should, however, be mentioned) his partner in the Horns- 
Bagdad Railway affair, the Levantin Bernard Maimon, 
through the mediation of young Rouet, protege of Tardieu, 
made away with secret documents stolen from the Quai 
d'Orsay. A London paper, of which he is correspondent, 
published a resume, likewise secret, of the negotiations which 
had taken place at Potsdam between William II and the 
Russian Minister Sasonow. 

At once the Parisian bankers refused the Czar the loan 
of 1200 million francs already announced at the Bourse ; 
Nicholas II responded by withdrawing his troops from the 
German border. And in spite of the official denials, all 
Europe is asking itself today what is left of the Franco- 
Russian alliance. 

That is an example of what the little coterie of business 
men which surrounds and penetrates our Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs, can do. 

—36— 



In the present state of the Old World when a match can 
set fire to all Europe, a few brawlers attracted by the bait 
of a railway concession in Turkey can involve France in a 
horrible cataclysm. 



The Plan 



But, they say, in admitting that these people want war, 
can we believe for a moment that the French people would 
let them do this? How could they persuade them to let them- 
selves be massacred for such futile ambitions? 

The plan is simple ; it is all arranged and we can follow 
its realization every day. 

1. They are negotiating at this moment a military treaty 
with Great Britain. In case of war with Germany the British 
fleet would protect our Channel coast and our troops would 
march on Antwerp. 

It is well understood (this is to reassure public opinion) 
that this treaty is to be purely defensive. 

But you have noticed that all modern wars are always 
defensive? If you ask a Frenchman who was the aggressor 
in 1870 he will tell you that it was Bismarck in falsifying the 
dispatches of Ems. And put the same question to a German, 
he will answer you with the same good faith that it was 
Napoleon, since it was he who declared the war. 

In the same way all Russians are convinced that it was 
Japan who, by sinking the Russian ships in the harbor of 
Chemulpo, provoked the conflict; and all the Japanese will 
reply that the Czar by penetrating Korea threatened the in- 
dependence and security of their nation. 

In fact, when a war breaks out, it is because the two 
hostile governments equally wanted it; but each of the two 
peoples is equally convinced that they are only defending 
themselves. 

Then when it pleases the Foreign Office to make war, 
its diplomats will know how to arrange for placing the re- 
sponsibility for the conflict on the adversary; and we will 
have to march by virtue of a "defensive" treaty to assist 
George V. 

2. But if we want the French peasant to march with 
good spirit, public opinion must be prepared. For such pur- 
pose he must be persuaded that the Prussians think forever 
of invading French territory. Then the servile press seizes 
upon the most trifling incidents, distorts and magnifies them, 

—37— 



and disquiets the public. An incident in the foreign legion, 
such as the lawsuit "La Lorraine sportive," or an aero- 
plane flight, are good stuff to arouse in us fear and hatred 
of Germany. 

One large newspaper which takes its news service by 
special wire from the Times office, excels in this game. And 
this is only the beginning! 

3. And finally when the public will have been sufficiently 
aroused, when the idea of a German peril is sufficiently im- 
planted in our minds, then some fine night the English fleet 
will sail full steam for Flushing. At the same time almost 
the Prussian regiments at Aix-la-Chapelle will embark on 
express trains on their way to Antwerp. 

Also, according to custom, the French government will 
seize all telegrams and letters which might give information 
of the movement of belligerent troops. Later an official note 
will be sent to the press. The next morning all newspapers 
will point in headlines as large as your hand these prophetic 
words : 

THE BELGIAN NEUTRALITY HAS BEEN VIOLATED. 
THE PRUSSIAN ARMY IS MARCHING ON LILLE. 

For — such is the trap — they will not say that the objec- 
tive of the corps from Aix-la-Chapelle is Antwerp ; they will 
only say it is directed against the French frontier. 

At this terrible news repeated by the millions of voices 
of the press with great effect, the peasant of Brittany, or 
Cantal, the little bourgeois patriot, the badly informed work- 
man, persuaded that France is attacked, will shoulder their 
knapsacks. Without giving them time to reflect they are 
shipped with all haste in cattle cars on their way to the 
Belgian plains. The German army, hindered in its march 
upon Antwerp, will fall upon them. 

And this is how, by the astuteness of a small group of 
financiers and diplomats, a great people will find itself drawn 
into a war entirely against its will. 

The Lone Chance for Peace 

Is the war inevitable? 

I do not think so. 

If in the economic conflict so strenuously engaged in 
between England and Germany, vital interests are at stake, 
it is not the same for France. And we must always hope 
that a sudden awakening of public conscience and the fear 

—38— 



of a revolution may deter these business men before the 
accomplishment of their dangerous intrigues. 

But it is necessary to consider well, such a sudden awak- 
ening of the public conscience will not happen if the people 
are not warned in time. 

The financial coterie which are wirepulling in the back 
rooms of the chancelleries is not large, but holds the most 
terrible of trumps — the popular ignorance. 

The great words "Honor, the Fatherland, the Flag. 
National Defense," in the names of which for centuries so 
many crimes have been committed, and so many unjust and 
useless wars waged, are always powerful to sway the masses. 

To hinder the financiers from making use of them, it is 
necessary to arouse public opinion and to shake off torpid 
indifference. 

And above all, the preachers of peace who hypnotize 
people into a false security, must be defied. 

That may please some politicians and some naive people 
who lull themselves to sleep with the fond hope of compulsory 
arbitration. 

As a matter of fact, Germany has declared that she 
will not accept it ; and Sir John Fisher, supreme chief of 
the English fleet and delegate to the Conference at the Hague, 
announced with brutal frankness : 

"In case of war, I should violate all the rules of all the 
Peace Conferences — I have but one purpose, and that is to 
win. The diplomats can negotiate afterwards." 

It is, therefore, a dangerous illusion to count on the 
friendly regulation of international conflicts by arbitration. 

At this very moment, moreover, there is evidence of a 
gradual wavering of the pacifist propaganda among the mid- 
dle classes due to the pressure of the governments and the 
hostile financiers. 

Even amongst the working classes formerly opposed to 
militarism, an attempt is made to spread the militarist fever. 

In Germany, Socialist politicians, and not the small ones 
either, declared in the Reichstag that in case of war not a 
German Socialist would be missed at roll call. 

In England, a Socialist named Blatchford has published 
a thundering brochure, "The German Peril," which is a 
direct appeal to the chauvinistic passions. And the congress 

—39— 



of the Labor party, with Hyndman, voted for the strengthen- 
ing of the navy. 

Even in France, Jaures, forgetting the traditional cry of 
his party, "Rather revolution than war!", under the pretext 
of organizing the new army, proposed to militarize our chil- 
dren of the primary schools, demanded that all our lawyers, 
doctors and professors taken from the bourgeoisie, be made 
officers, and preached with his customary eloquence the re- 
turn to the patriotic and warlike traditions of 1792. 

It is against this revival of chauvinistic passions that we 
must now defend ourselves. 

For this there is only one remedy : Instruct the people 
as to the true situation in Europe ; accustom them to discern 
underneath diplomatic conflicts the intrigues of business men ; 
show them beneath the spread eagle words Honor, Father- 
land and National Safety, the orders, concessions and loans 
which are the real motives of war. And then when they are 
invited to go and shed their blood on the plains of Belgium 
to assure the Creusot dividends, there will be produced such 
a formidable arousing of popular feeling, not alone among 
the workmen, but also with the peasants and middle classes, 
that the financial oligarchy will recoil and these men of prey 
will halt on the threshold of their crime. 

That is the only hope of peace left to us. 

"To dare to tell the truth to men of courage!" 

May, 1911. 



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